Stephen Follows analyzed more than 10,000 movies since 2000 to see if review embargo dates correlate with movie quality. He found that, yes, movies that are reviewed favorably tend to have earlier review embargoes. Conversely, the worst movies tend to have embargoes that are basically the same as their release dates.
Follows notes that opening weekends are particularly critical for a movie’s overall financial success:
A 2006 study found that the quality of the movie had much less of an effect on opening-weekend box office than on overall box office gross. You could read this to say: the more time people have to learn about how good the movie is, the more it matters if it’s any good.
Another study in the Journal of Marketing found that reviews have their strongest impact early in a film’s run. Negative reviews, in particular, hurt box office performance more than positive reviews help it, but that asymmetry is concentrated almost entirely in the first week. As the run continues and audience word of mouth takes over, the effect of criticism weakens.
Essentially, if negative reviews are barred from publishing right until a film’s opening, they have less of a chance to tank the film’s performance.
My question after reading this: why do outlets agree to embargoes designed to bury their effect? Reviews are essentially service journalism; they help the public decide how to spend their money. If review embargoes for bad movies are specifically designed to limit the effect of that advice, it seems like film reviewers should consider policies to counteract that. I could imagine larger outlets, at least, saying “we won’t agree to any embargoes fewer than three days before opening.”
I’m sure there are reasons why this is impractical, but geez, why even provide advance access to the films at all if their reviews will be so constrained and ineffective anyway?